Now Myles Garrett has had his suspension lifted, attention turns to what an extension looks like. The current CBA allows players to extend their deal after their third season. It is an unusual situation to see moves like this though, we have to look back to 2014 for the last 1st round defensive lineman signed before their fourth season. JJ Watt signed his extension two days before the NFL season began, so this might take all offseason.
What Next For The Salary Cap?
This is the final year of the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement meaning cap changes are on the horizon. This could mean that Garrett gets advised by his agent to wait for the CBA before striking a deal. Adam Schefter has reported that the revenue share between the league and players is due to jump from 47% to 48.5%. When we are discussing a deal worth over $100 million, a 3% increase is a sizeable amount.
Checking The Contract Market
When looking to project a top player’s extension, it is always best to look at similar players and their deals. There are four other active players I would consider fellow defensive line superstars: Khalil Mack, Aaron Donald, J.J. Watt & Von Miller. All of these players received a six-year deal so it is very likely we will see Myles Garrett receive the same.
How Much Will It Cost?
There are two key things to look at when checking out the value of a contract, how much the deal is worth and the guarantees.
Looking at the average per year as % of the cap at signing, we see the deals ranging from 12.3% and 13.3%. If we adjust this for the 2020 salary cap of $200 million we see a deal between $147.5 million and $159 million.
If we flip our attention to the guarantees and adjust it based on the current salary cap we have a range of $78 million to $101.5 million.
For the projected Garrett deal I am going to factor in the 3% increase due to the deal getting done two years early. This means a 6 year, $164 million deal.
Signing Bonus Vs Roster Bonus
When a team has a large amount of salary cap rollover they can decide to spend a large amount of cap in one season. We saw this with the Jimmy Garoppolo deal, this allowed the 49ers to take a larger cap hit in year one to lower the future cost.
With the Browns rolling over approximately $32 million of cap space they could decide to use this as a signing bonus. This would mean an additional cap hit of $6.4 million each of the next five seasons.
The other option would be a roster bonus that would appear as a cap charge of $32 million on the 2020 salary cap. This would mean the payment is accounted for in one year and protects against any cap rollover changes in the next CBA.
Extension vs Blended Deal
The next two years Myles has a cap hit of $9.7 million and then the 5th year option is due to be around $18.5 million. This would then lead to a six-year deal with an average value of $27.3 million per year. Rather than add the sixth year onto the end of Myles’ rookie deal, the two can be blended to reduce the overall cap hit.
What The Deal Could Look Like?
Years – 6
Total Salary – $164 million
Guarantees at time of signing – $70.5 million
2020 Roster Bonus – $30 million
Signing Bonus – $5 million
2021 Option Bonus – $20 million
2021 Salary – $15,500,000
Total guarantees – $101.5 million
2022 & 2023 Injury guarantees for base salary, become full guarantees on 15th March that year
|Year||Age||Base Salary||Prorated Bonus||Roster Bonus||Workout Bonus||Guaranteed Salary||Cap|